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Description
AI bubble burst by the specified date? This market resolves to Yes if the AI industry experiences a downturn defined by any three of the listed conditions within 90 days of the market’s timeframe. Conditions include NVDA, SOXX, bankruptcy or acquisition of OpenAI/Anthropic, H100 price drop to $1.00 for five consecutive days per SiliconIndex, or a major AI hardware supplier collapse among TSM, ASML, AVGO, ANET, or SMCI. Settlement occurs only after three conditions are met, using official company/exchange announcements or credible reporting consensus.
Event stats
24h volume
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Liquidity
Markets
3
Market highlights
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Top market
24h gainer
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Related events
Largest Company end of March?Which companies will be acquired before 2027?3rd largest company end of March?Largest Company end of June?2nd largest company end of March?Largest Company end of December 2026?IPOs before 2027?Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?Which CEOs will be out before 2027?OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2025 | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.