Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Anthropic vs OpenAI — which company has the higher valuation on December 31, 2026? Valuations are measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market for that date. If data is not published by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, the market may stay open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027, and if still unpublished it will resolve using the latest available data, with IPO/direct listing/public-market data used for resolution when applicable. If valuations are equal, the market resolves to a 50-50. The resolution source is the official NPM data pages linked in the rules, or, when applicable, public exchange data after an IPO or direct listing.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?OpenAI files IPO by...?Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30?OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?What will OpenAI's public ticker be?OpenAI acquired before 2027?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anthropic's valuation is equal to OpenAI's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.