Price history
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Description
Best AI model on July 18? The market resolves to the model leading the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of 12:00 PM ET on July 18, based on the Rank column under Text Arena | Overall with style control off. Models are ordered by leaderboard rank, with ties broken by Arena score and then alphabetical model name. Any unlisted model is classified as Other. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard; if unavailable, the market remains open until the leaderboard returns and then resolves to the first check after it comes back online.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
5
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-opus-4-6-thinking | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| claude-opus-4-6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| claude-fable-5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| claude-opus-4-7-thinking | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.