Price history
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Description
Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers is an access-restoration question tied to Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 (also called Claude Mythos). On June 9, 2026 Anthropic released the model publicly; on June 12, 2026 access was suspended per a US government directive. The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic publicly restores access to Claude Fable 5 or an equivalent model (Claude Mythos variants) to US users by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date, otherwise No.
Event stats
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19
Market highlights
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Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 15 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 22 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 1 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 16 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 18 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 19 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 17 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 26 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 31 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 29 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 17 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 10 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 2 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 3 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 6 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 8 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.