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Description
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026 is a yes/no market. It resolves to Yes if Etna erupts with VEI 2 or greater at any point from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, based on Smithsonian GVP reporting; otherwise No. If an eruption is ongoing at year-end, the market may stay open for up to 14 extra days to confirm VEI. If GVP becomes unavailable or VEI cannot be assigned within 14 days after 2026 ends, consensus scientific sources may resolve the market.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption. If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.