Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
How many Republican House incumbents will not win their primary? The 2026 midterm primaries run March through September. Incumbents are deemed not to have won if they withdraw or are not declared the winner after official candidacy, across all nominating contests from March 1 to September 30, 2026. Resolution follows the first conclusive calls by AP, Fox News, and NBC; if consensus fails, state certifications determine the outcome.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
6
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?How many Republican Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Texas Republican Senate Primary WinnerMaine Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Markets
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.