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Description
LA mayoral first-round margin markets examine the 2026 election held on June 2, 2026. The margin of victory is the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ percentages of valid votes, measured from total valid votes in the first round. If the top-two vote share brackets fall exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket is chosen. If a tie exists among listed candidates, the tie-breaking rule uses the alphabetically earlier last name among tied listed candidates; if neither tied candidate is listed, the market resolves to Other. Results settle from the official count once finalized; if not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. A consensus of credible reporting also governs resolution, with the City and County of Los Angeles official results as the tiebreaker in case of ambiguity.
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bass 0–5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bass 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bass 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bass 15%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pratt Wins | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Raman Wins | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.