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Description
Makerfield by-election in June 2026 will determine a margin of victory between the top two candidates. The margin is the absolute difference in vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates, computed from valid votes for the top two divided by total valid votes. If the result sits exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket applies. If two declared candidates tie for first among listed candidates, the tie resolves based on the listed last name alphabetically; if tied with an unlisted candidate, the listed candidate’s margin bracket wins; if multiple unlisted candidates tie, the market resolves to Other. Count results, including recounts, will settle on official counts published by Wigan Council, or credible reporting if needed, and if no definitive results by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. Settlement requires credible reporting consensus or official results.
Event stats
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Markets
8
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnham 9%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Burnham 6-9% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Burnham 3-6% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Burnham <3% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kenyon <3% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kenyon 3-6% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kenyon 6%+ | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.