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Description
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) identifies the first listed individual to cease occupying their office. Permanent removal triggers resolution; resignations or scheduled departures do not qualify. Caretaker or interim roles do not count as ceasing occupancy. If no listed leader leaves office by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to None before 2027. Resolution rests on a consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
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Market highlights
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macron - France President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Albanese - Australia PM | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Newsom - California Governor | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Milei - Argentina President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Starmer - UK PM | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Trump - USA President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Putin - Russia President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Lecornu - France PM | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Merz - German Chancellor | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sheinbaum - Mexico President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Petro - Colombia President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| al-Sharaa - Syria President | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| None before 2027 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.