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Description
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by the specified date markets assess whether a mutual, officially announced or credibly reported ceasefire exists by the deadline. A ceasefire means a general pause in direct military engagement with a dated commitment to stop fighting, potentially within a broader peace framework, and excludes informal understandings or unilateral pauses. If an agreement is reached before the end date, it resolves Yes regardless of timing of entry into effect; credible reporting or official government statements provide the resolution basis.
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5
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| October 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.