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Description
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by a specified date will settle if President Trump or official US authorities publicly announce the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by 11:59 PM ET on the given date. The event tracks formal statements or personal/public communications from the US government or President, or a credible consensus reporting such a definitive lifting, with explicit language indicating the blockade has ceased.
Event stats
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Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
21
Market highlights
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Highest volume
Top market
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Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 13 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 15 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 17 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 19 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 23 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 18 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 15 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 8 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 22 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 7 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 15 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 12 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 18 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 21 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.