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Description
US economic state at the end of 2026 concerns unemployment and inflation as reported in December 2026. The unemployment rate uses the seasonally adjusted U-3 measure from the BLS Employment Situation release, while inflation uses the 12-month change in CPI-U from the BLS CPI release. If December 2026 figures are not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves using the most recently published value for a month prior to December 2026. Outcomes are determined by the combined thresholds: Soft Landing if unemployment <5.0% and inflation <3.5%; Stagflation if unemployment ≥5.0% and inflation ≥3.5%; Overheating if unemployment <5.0% and inflation ≥3.5%; Slack if unemployment ≥5.0% and inflation <3.5%. Settlement follows official BLS releases for unemployment and CPI inflation.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
4
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.