Price history
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Description
Cities in eastern Ukraine are tracked for possible Russian territorial capture by December 31, 2026. Resolution follows the ISW map: a city is deemed captured if any portion lies under a shading indicating Russian control on the latest finalized ISW daily cycle through 11:59 PM ET, with negotiated settlements counting only if actual control changes hands. If the ISW map is unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and a credible reporting consensus may cover gaps. Exclusions and contingencies apply as described in the event rules.
Event stats
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Liquidity
Markets
8
Market highlights
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24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sloviansk | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sumy | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Druzkhivka | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dopropillia | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kramatorsk | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kharkiv | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kherson | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Zaporizhia | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.