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Description
Which Democrat will be the first to publicly announce a run for President in 2028? The market tracks the first listed individual to make an unambiguous candidacy announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, with announcements posted through official statements or credible reporting as the resolution basis. An exploratory step or campaign formation without a formal announcement does not resolve the market. If no listed candidate announces by the deadline, the market resolves to Other.
Event stats
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Markets
12
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Jon Ossoff | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kamala Harris | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Josh Shapiro | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pete Buttigieg | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Jon Stewart | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Andy Beshear | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Rahm Emanuel | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ro Khanna | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stephen A. Smith | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.