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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Carlson | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Megyn Kelly | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Candace Owens | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Alex Jones | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pope Leo XIV | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Vladimir Putin | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Joe Biden | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Barack Obama | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pam Bondi | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| J.D. Vance | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Melania Trump | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Xi Jinping | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Andy Burnham | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Viktor Orbán | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Elon Musk | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Jerome Powell | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Nicolás Maduro | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Zohran Mamdani | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Jimmy Kimmel | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Emmanuel Macron | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Friedrich Merz | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Norah O'Donnell | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kaitlan Collins | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mohammed bin Salman | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kevin Warsh | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.