Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
A Chinese AI model ranking at the top of the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will determine the Yes outcome. Any Chinese-owned model sharing the highest arena score also resolves to Yes; if no Chinese model holds or ties for first, the No outcome applies. The official leaderboard page at lmarena.ai is the resolution source, with access issues handled by fallback credible sources if needed.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?Largest Company end of June?Largest Company end of December 2026?Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?Which CEOs will be out before 2027?OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?Gemini 3.5 released by...?OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.