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Description
China invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027 is evaluated as a Yes if a military offensive starts with the aim of taking control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by 11:59 PM ET on that date. Territory under ROC administration, including inhabited islands, qualifies; uninhabited islands do not. Settlement relies on official confirmation or a credible reporting consensus.
Event stats
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.