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Description
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? A Yes outcome occurs if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by the deadline. Territory under ROC administration, including inhabited islands, qualifies; uninhabited islands do not. Resolution relies on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any UNSC permanent member, with a credible-reporting consensus as a fallback.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.