Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by the specified date? Russia’s capture of the Orikhiv train station (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E, Zaporizhzhia Oblast) must be shown on the ISW map as red shading on the station icon, with persistence through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If shading persists through updates and shows Russian control by the resolution date, the market resolves Yes; if not, No. In case of negotiated settlement that grants de jure control, this will also resolve Yes, provided actual control exists; losses after capture do not alter resolution. If ISW data is unavailable, the DeepStateMap or credible reporting consensus may determine resolution.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
2
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Lyman by...?Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...?Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.