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Description
Will Russia capture the Rodynske intersection by September 15, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) per the ISW map. Resolution hinges on shading of the T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia intersection in Rodyns'ke; a red shading indicates capture. Negotiated settlements yielding de jure control do not qualify unless actual control is established. If the ISW map is unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting consensus may determine the outcome.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
9
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 15 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| October 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| November 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| January 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia located in Rodyns'ke by September 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Rodyns'ke: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection.png Rodyns'ke location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/oFYUB5RUaKXaPvVT9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.