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Description
Russia’s control of Stavky in Donetsk Oblast is evaluated by ISW map shading of the Stavky intersection (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E). The market resolves to Yes if shading turns red and remains through the next full ISW update cycle, or via negotiated settlement that yields de facto control. If shading does not persist by July 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. DeepStateMap or credible reporting may substitute if ISW data is unavailable, with a final consensus if both sources are unavailable.
Event stats
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2
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky1.png Intersection Location in Stavky: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky2.png Stavky Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Stavky3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/As9xRqw7yvEiQGSh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.