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Description
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the stated windows? The market resolves to Yes if ISW shading shows Russian control of any part of Rai-Oleksandrivka on or before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, persisting through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If control is established and remains through updates, the market settles Yes; loss of control after establishment does not affect resolution. If a negotiated settlement yields de jure control, that qualifies for Yes only if actual control exists, and only ISW (or fallback DeepStateMap if ISW is unavailable) informs the resolution, with credible reporting as a last resort if both sources are unavailable.
Event stats
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Markets
4
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 31 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Rai-Oleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.8088° N, 37.8573° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Rai-Oleksandrivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.