Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again? is a data-driven forecast about territorial control in Ukraine, based on the ISW map. The market resolves to Yes if ISW shading shows any part of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast captured by Russia between market creation and February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with persistence across the next full ISW update cycle. If shading never qualifies, or if control is not sustained through an update cycle, the market resolves to No. The ISW map is the primary resolution source; if unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and, if needed, a consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
5
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Lyman by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Hryshyne by...?Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.