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Description
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft is a December 31, 2026 valuation comparison. The market resolves to OpenAI + Anthropic if their combined private-market valuation exceeds Microsoft's public market capitalization on that date; otherwise it resolves to Microsoft. NPM data is published daily at 1:00 PM ET, with ties settled 50-50 if equal. If data for the target date is unavailable by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, the market may stay open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027, after which it resolves based on available data and subsequent public-market figures where applicable.
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Related events
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?OpenAI files IPO by...?Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30?Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?What will OpenAI's public ticker be?OpenAI acquired before 2027?SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.