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Description
AZ-01 Republican primary runoff in Arizona is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The market resolves on the margin of victory between the top two candidates, defined as the absolute percentage gap of valid votes between first and second place. If results fall exactly between brackets, the higher bracket is chosen; ties resolve to the alphabetically earlier last name among listed candidates, or to the lowest bracket if only one tied candidate is listed; otherwise it resolves to Other. Settlement follows official statewide results from the Arizona Secretary of State, or credible reporting if needed, with open status through recounts until vote totals are official.
Event stats
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10
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feely 25%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Feely 20–25% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Feely 15–20% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Feely 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Feely 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Feely <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Chaplik <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Chaplik 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Chaplik 10%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.