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Description
California Governor Primary Margin of Victory is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election, and the market resolves by the absolute difference in percentages of valid votes between the first and second place candidates. If the margin lies exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket applies. In a tied top count between listed candidates, the tie is resolved by the alphabetically earlier last name among listed candidates; if only one listed, that candidate’s bracket applies; if neither listed, the market resolves to Other. Official results from the California Secretary of State determine settlement, with credible reporting as a fallback if needed, and the market remains open through recounts until totals are official.
Event stats
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Markets
8
Market highlights
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Becerra 10%+ | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Becerra 5–10% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Becerra <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Steyer 5%+ | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Steyer <5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hilton Wins | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bianco Wins | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.