Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Clacton by-election margin of victory markets focus on the top-two candidates’ vote share in the upcoming UK parliamentary contest triggered by Nigel Farage’s resignation. The margin equals the absolute difference in the first- and second-place shares of valid votes, calculated from each candidate’s valid votes divided by total valid votes. If the reported margin sits exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket applies. If ties involve listed candidates, the tie is broken by the listed last name alphabetically; if a listed candidate ties with an unlisted one, the listed candidate loses the margin. The market resolves only after official results are published by Tendring District Council and the UK Parliament, or, if not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to “Other.” A recount pauses resolution until totals are official. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting when possible.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
6
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Presidential Election Winner 2028Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Next French Presidential ElectionClacton by-election WinnerWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally CandidateWho will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Which party will win the House in 2026?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farage 30%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Farage 20-30% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Farage 10-20% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Farage <10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Count Binface | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.