Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Fed decisions (Apr–Jul) track the Federal Open Market Committee’s actions on the target federal funds rate across three meetings: April 28–29, June 16–17, and July 28–29. A market resolves to a three-meeting sequence of cuts, pauses, or cuts, depending on whether the upper bound is lower, equal, or higher than the prior level for each meeting; any deviation not matching listed patterns resolves to “Other.” The official FOMC statements and the Fed’s rate history pages govern resolution, with updates published after each meeting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
9
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut–Pause–Pause | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Pause–Pause | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Cut–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm