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Description
GPT-6 released by OpenAI is the focus here. If OpenAI makes GPT-6 publicly accessible by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves to Yes; otherwise it resolves to No. Public access includes general availability or open beta/rollouts, not private access, with an official OpenAI announcement confirming public availability.
Event stats
24h volume
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Liquidity
Markets
10
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 7, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 14, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 21, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.