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Description
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? concerns whether any hantavirus case tied to the MV Hondius outbreak is proven to have originated from a medical laboratory or research facility by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation requires Andes virus cases linked to a controlled lab setting, with credible reporting consensus indicating a plausible laboratory origin for the Hondius outbreak. No verdict is given without consensus-backed evidence by the deadline.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any hantavirus case linked to the hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship is confirmed to have originated from a medical laboratory or research facility by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the hantavirus case originated from a medical laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting is required. Definitive confirmation that the lab-originated case directly caused the outbreak on the MV Hondius is not required, provided a consensus of credible reporting indicates that the lab-originated case is a possible source of, or is otherwise plausibly connected to, the MV Hondius outbreak. Investigations, speculation, statements that a lab origin is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.