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Description
The 2026 midterm elections on November 3 will determine Republican seat counts in both chambers. The market resolves by tallying Republican seats in the U.S. Senate (including contests, runoffs, specials, and vacancies as of October 31, 2026) and in the U.S. House (all voting-seat elections in November 2026, including specials, with runoffs delaying resolution). Settlement follows the combined Republican total across Senate and House, with outcomes nuanced by ranges defined in the market set and resolution sources for confirmation.
Event stats
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Liquidity
Markets
13
Market highlights
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Top market
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥53 and ≥223 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ≥53 and 208–222 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ≥53 and ≤207 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 50–52 and ≥223 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 50–52 and 208–222 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 50–52 and 193–207 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 50–52 and ≤192 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 47–49 and ≥208 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 47–49 and 193–207 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 47–49 and ≤192 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ≤46 and ≥208 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ≤46 and 193–207 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ≤46 and ≤192 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. The number of House seats held by the Republican Party will be determined based upon the results of all US House of Representatives elections for voting members, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. The number of Senate seats held by the Republican party based on both the composition of seats that are not up for election and the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.