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Description
Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory on June 2, 2026 measures the margin between the top two candidates. The margin is the absolute difference in their valid vote percentages, computed as the first-place candidate’s valid votes divided by total valid votes plus the second-place candidate’s valid votes divided by the same total. If the reported margin falls exactly between brackets, the higher bracket applies. If the top two are tied and both listed, the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically determines the bracket; if only one is listed, that bracket applies; if neither is listed, the market resolves to Other. Official results from the Iowa Secretary of State govern settlement, with credible reporting as fallback. If results are not definitively known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. Recount timing keeps the market open until vote totals are official.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
6
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
CA-04 Primary WinnersMI-10 Democratic Primary WinnerGA-05 Democratic Primary WinnerGA-08 Republican Primary WinnerGA-11 Republican Primary WinnerMI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerNJ-09 Republican Primary WinnerGA-01 Democratic Primary WinnerDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turek 30%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Turek 20–30% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Turek 10–20% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Turek <10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wahls Wins | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.