Description
Alireza Arafi to hold de facto head-of-state powers in Iran at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026, based on demonstrated control over national institutions and the capital.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
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30D change
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24h volume
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Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
Mar 1, 2026, 00:17
Resolve date
Dec 31, 2026, 00:00
Position in event
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24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Head of State | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sadegh Larijani | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hassan Khomeini | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Reza Pahlavi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hassan Shariatmadari | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Maryam Rajavi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Massoud Rajavi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Seyed Hossein Mousavian | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Reza Pirzadeh | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Navid Shomali | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mustafa Hijri | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ali Motahari | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mostafa Pourmohammadi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sadegh Mahsouli | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Saeed Jalili | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hassan Rouhani | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mohammad Khatami | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mohammad Pakpour | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Alireza Arafi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ali Larijani | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Abbas Araghchi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ahmad Vahidi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mohsen Araki | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Nasir Hosseini | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ali Asghar Hejazi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
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Event Rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.