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Description
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 concerns whether Iran ceases to exercise primary governmental or military control over the island, with control transferred to another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority. Resolution hinges on actual establishment of control by that entity by 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2026, and excludes temporary actions or claims without established control. Official statements plus credible reporting will constitute the resolution source.
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Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.