Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
—
All-time low
—
Created
Jul 30, 2026, 00:50
Resolve date
Jan 1, 2027, 04:59
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 15 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 24 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.