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Description
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory on August 4, 2026 will resolve by the margin between the top two candidates in the first-round results. The margin equals the absolute difference in their shares of total valid votes, calculated as each candidate’s valid votes divided by all valid votes. If the margin sits on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket applies. If a tie occurs among listed top candidates, the tie is resolved by the alphabetic order of last names for the earliest-listed tie candidate; if only one tied name is listed, the bracket for that candidate applies; if neither listed, the market resolves to Other. Official Michigan Secretary of State results govern settlement, with credible reporting as fallback if needed; recounts keep the market open until totals are official or a recount completes.
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11
Market highlights
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El-Sayed 25%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed 20–25% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed 15–20% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stevens <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stevens 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stevens 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stevens 15%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.