Description
El-Sayed <5% margin in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory. Margin determined by the absolute difference in top-two vote shares; official results determine brackets.
Price history
Loading price history...
Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
—
All-time low
—
Created
Jul 6, 2026, 22:10
Resolve date
Aug 4, 2026, 00:00
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El-Sayed 25%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed 20–25% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed 15–20% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| El-Sayed <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stevens <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stevens 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stevens 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stevens 15%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.