Price history
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Description
Anthropic's Claude Sonnet releases for public access determine the Yes outcome. If a Sonnet model—such as Claude Sonnet 5.1, 5.5, Sonnet 6, or other officially named Sonnet variants—becomes publicly accessible by the specified date (ET), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, No. Official public release announcements or explicit public access signals drive settlement, with confirmation from Anthropic and corroborating credible reporting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
3
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| October 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.