Mejia 40%+ to have the top two finish margin fall in the 40%+ bracket, based on the April 16, 2026 official results for NJ-11. Margin brackets reflect the absolute gap between first and second place as a share of total valid votes; if multiple top candidates tie, the described tie rules apply.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mejia 40%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mejia 35-40% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mejia 30-35% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mejia 25-30% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mejia 20-25% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mejia <20% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.