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Description
New Zealand’s November 7, 2026 general election determines the margin of victory between the top two parties by party-list votes. The margin is the absolute share difference of valid party-list votes among the two leading parties, calculated from total valid party-list votes across all electorate voting, including Māori. If a tie occurs for most votes, the margin bracket defaults to the lowest bracket for the alphabetically first listed party. If results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. Settlement follows official results from Elections NZ or a credible reporting consensus.
Event stats
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Liquidity
Markets
9
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour 15%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Labour 10-15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Labour 5-10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Labour 0-5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| National 0-5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| National 5-10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| National 10%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Another Party Wins | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.