Description
Another Party Wins margin outcome in the 2026 New Zealand general election. Margin defined by the distance between the top two party-list shares; if a tie occurs, applies alphabetical tie-breaker; unresolved cases go to Other.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
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30D change
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24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
Apr 30, 2026, 00:04
Resolve date
Nov 7, 2026, 00:00
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour 15%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Labour 10-15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Labour 5-10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Labour 0-5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| National 0-5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| National 5-10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| National 10%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Another Party Wins | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.