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Description
Social Security insolvency by a deadline is assessed with the SSA unable to fully pay benefits due to exhausted Trust Funds' reserves on the specified date. A true solvency failure occurs only when actual depletion happens by 11:59 PM ET; debt-ceiling payment gaps do not qualify, and mere projections do not settle the market. Resolution sources are SSA/White House publications or credible reporting consensus.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
2
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2028 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.