Yes: Social Security cannot fully pay benefits by December 31, 2028 (11:59 PM ET) due to exhausted Trust Funds, resulting in reduced or eliminated payments. Settlement relies on SSA/White House publications or credible reporting consensus.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2028 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.