Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31? concerns whether Rahmanullah Lakanwal was coerced by Taliban to shoot two National Guard members in Washington, D.C. on November 26. Resolution occurs only when U.S. law enforcement or credible reporting confirms blackmail by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; without such confirmation, the market resolves to No. The ruling excludes non-coercive encouragement and centers on an official or consensus-backed determination of coercion.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
X banned in U.K. by March 31?Number of TSA Passengers March 15?Number of TSA Passengers March 13?Number of TSA Passengers March 10?Number of TSA Passengers March 14?Number of TSA Passengers March 11?Number of TSA Passengers March 12?Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by...?Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?Iran strikes Israel on...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The Afghan man Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who allegedly shot two National Guard members in Washington D.C. on November 26, is rumored to have been blackmailed into the shooting by the Taliban. This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban to commit this shooting by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, blackmail refers to members of the Taliban coercing Lakanwal to commit the shooting or a similar act by threatening Lakanwal or his family/friends. General encouragement or instruction from the Taliban, without coercion, will not qualify. This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.