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Description
Texas Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory is determined by the absolute difference in percentages between the top two candidates in the first-round Texas Democratic Senate primary. The margin is calculated from valid votes for the two leading candidates divided by total valid votes, with ties broken by alphabetic order of last names and brackets resolved by higher bracket placement. The official Texas Secretary of State results will settle the market; if no result is definitive by November 30, 2026, the market may resolve to Other.
Event stats
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Markets
7
Market highlights
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Top market
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Related events
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Texas Republican Senate Primary WinnerMaine Democratic Senate Primary WinnerTexas Senate Election MatchupMichigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerTexas Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory (Smaller Brackets)Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary WinnerTurnout in Texas Republican Senate Primary First RoundWill any candidate win the Texas Republican Senate Primary outright?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talarico 15%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Crockett 5%+ | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Crockett <5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.