Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Texas Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory markets cover the March 3, 2026 Texas Democratic primary. The top-two-vote margin is calculated as the absolute difference in percentages of valid votes received by the first and second place candidates, using the official total valid votes for the election. If the margin falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket resolves. If two candidates tie, the winner is the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. Resolution follows the official Texas Secretary of State results; if the results are not definitively known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or a recount stalls official totals, the market resolves to Other.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
13
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Texas Republican Senate Primary WinnerMaine Democratic Senate Primary WinnerTexas Senate Election MatchupTexas Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryMichigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerOklahoma Republican Senate Primary WinnerTurnout in Texas Republican Senate Primary First RoundWill any candidate win the Texas Republican Senate Primary outright?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talarico 10%+ | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 9.5–10.0% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 9.0–9.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 8.5–9.0% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 8.0–8.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 7.5–8.0% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 7.0–7.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 6.5–7.0% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 6.0–6.5% | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 5.5–6.0% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico 5.0–5.5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Talarico <5% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
Primary elections in Texas took place on March 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.