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Description
Texas Senate Republican primary runoff margin of victory is determined by the absolute difference in valid votes between the top two candidates in the May 26, 2026 runoff. The count settles using official statewide results from the Texas Secretary of State, with ties broken by alphabetical last name order. If results are not definitively known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Event stats
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Markets
9
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton 30%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Paxton 25–30% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Paxton 20–25% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Paxton 15–20% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Paxton 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Paxton 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Paxton 0–5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cornyn Win | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.