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Description
Two SpaceX Starships dock together in orbit by the listed date. A qualifying docking must join two free-flying Starships in stable Earth orbit (perigee ≥ 100 km) with matching velocity, connected via mating hardware for at least 60 consecutive seconds. Both vessels must be integral rocket-and-spacecraft platforms and equal or exceed Starship in scale; payloads atop separate launches do not count. If either vessel is merely docked passively, the maneuver does not qualify. Resolution relies on a consensus of reputable reporting and is assessed from market creation through the target date.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2027 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.