No: no qualifying docking between two SpaceX Starships occurs in stable Earth orbit before December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM ET) per the stated rules. Docking must be a 60-second, velocity-matched connection between two free-flying vessels of starship scale; passive or non-qualifying pairings do not count.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2027 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.