Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Price history for this event is not available yet.
Description
US government actions toward open source AI models in 2026 center on possible federal steps. If, between market creation and December 31, 2026, the US passes legislation, issues an executive order, imposes an export-control, or takes any formal action banning open source models’ distribution, access, or use by the general public in the US, the Yes outcome occurs. Absent such formal action, the market resolves No. Only actions that restrict ordinary public access through common channels count, with official government announcements or maintainers’ confirmations as resolution sources.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?Largest Company end of July?Largest Company end of December 2026?Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?GPT-6 released by…?Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US government bans an open source AI model in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". “Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify. To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient. A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted. A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect. Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify. Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own. The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.